Based on the data provided, tobacco consumption in the UK among individuals aged 15+ who are daily smokers is steadily decreasing. In 2023, 14.2% of this demographic were daily smokers. By 2024, this number is expected to drop to 13.7%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3.5%. Moving forward, the forecasted values continue to demonstrate a declining trend: 13.3% in 2025 (-2.9% YoY), 12.9% in 2026 (-3.0% YoY), and 12.4% in 2027 (-3.9% YoY) . The average annual decrease (CAGR) over the five-year period from 2023 to 2027 is approximately 2.7%.
Key short-term and long-term future trends to watch for include the growing influence of public health policies, increased public awareness about the health risks associated with smoking, and the potential impact of alternative nicotine delivery devices like e-cigarettes. These factors could accelerate the decline in tobacco consumption or create shifts in the market dynamics.
