Based on the provided data, Brazil's maternal death rate expressed as lifetime risk showcased varying trends over the past decade. From 2013 to 2023, the maternal death ratio hovered around 950 with minor reductions and increments until 2016. From 2017, the figures reflected an increase, fluctuating significantly by 2020 due to external factors. Notably, 2020 saw a substantial decrease of 15.79%, attributed to potential interventions or anomalies, but this was offset in the following years by consistent year-on-year increases.
In 2023, the unit ratio stood at 1010. Over the last two years preceding 2023, there was a significant rise of 6.86% and then 4.97%. The last five years leading up to 2023 demonstrated an average annual growth (CAGR) of roughly 0.68%, hinting at a steady albeit slow increase in maternal risk rates.
Looking ahead from 2024, forecasts suggest a continuing upward trend in the maternal death rate. With projected yearly increments through to 2028, the compound annual growth rate is expected to be 1.18%, culminating in a total forecasted growth of 6.02% over the five years. Vigilance is key in closely observing these trends, as external health care improvements or systemic changes could significantly impact these projections. Additionally, tracking the impact of healthcare policies, socioeconomic changes, and access to maternal healthcare services will be critical in understanding and potentially curbing these increases.