Over the past decade, the production of outdoor potted geraniums in Canada has shown a significant downward trend. From a peak of 19.123 million units in 2014, the production has steadily decreased, with only minor fluctuations. In 2023, the production stood at 12.664 million units. The last two years registered a year-on-year decline of -5.44% in 2022 and -7.45% in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the last five years is -4.24%, highlighting a consistent decline. Forecasts indicate a continued decrease with a CAGR of -4.18% and a projected production of 9.7479 million units by 2028, representing a -19.23% decline over five years.

Looking ahead, one should watch for:

Potential impacts of climate change on production conditions.
Market shifts towards alternative outdoor plants that might affect geranium demand.
Technological advancements in horticulture that could alter production efficiency.
Evolving consumer preferences and their impact on the market.
Economic factors that might influence both supply and demand dynamics.