Forecast: Crude Oil and Condensate Production in China

China's crude oil and condensate production has shown varied trends over the past decade. After peaking in 2015 at 4.31 million barrels per day, production saw a significant decline until 2018. From 2019, it started rebounding, reaching 4.14 million barrels per day in 2023. The year-on-year variation indicates a recovery, with small consistent increases, especially noticeable from 2021 to 2023. Over the past two years, production increased by 0.63% in 2023 and 2.94% in 2022. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last five years stands at 1.7%, indicating a steady but modest uptrend.

Future trends to watch for:

• Continued modest growth with a forecasted CAGR of 0.44% over the next five years.
• Potential impacts of new technological advancements and drilling techniques on production levels.
• Government policy changes and investments in energy infrastructure that could influence production trends.