Forecast: Oil Production in Angola

Angola's oil production has shown a declining trend over the last decade. From a high of 88.16 million metric tons in 2015, production decreased by almost 40% to reach 55.01 million metric tons in 2023. Year-on-year variations have predominantly been negative, reflecting challenges in maintaining output levels. Specifically, 2022 and 2023 saw declines of 4.78% and a marginal growth of 1.14%, respectively. The five-year CAGR ending 2023 illustrates a 5.78% average annual decrease, signaling a persistent downtrend. These rates underscore an industry facing structural issues and inefficiencies.

Looking forward, the forecast through 2028 anticipates a continued decline in oil production, albeit at a slower pace. The forecasted five-year CAGR stands at -1.22%, with an overall projected decrease of 5.94% by 2028. Signs point towards stabilization in the decline, but recovery to earlier production levels remains improbable in the near term.

Future trends to watch for include advancements in exploration technology, potential investment in infrastructure, and shifts in global demand and oil prices. Legislative changes and strategic partnerships could also influence the trajectory of Angola’s oil industry, offering opportunities for mitigating the decline. Furthermore, diversification of the economy beyond oil could be a crucial factor in long-term sustainability.