The demand for sesame seeds in Kenya stood at 9,000 metric tons in 2023, reflecting no growth from the previous year. Historically, the demand has shown significant fluctuations, with the highest levels recorded in 2014 and 2017 at 16,000 metric tons each. However, from 2018 onwards, there was a notable decline, particularly a sharp drop in 2018 and a continued downtrend through 2023.
The forecast from 2024 onwards predicts a continued decrease, with demand expected to fall to 7,000 metric tons by 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years has been negative, indicating a declining trend. The forecasted CAGR for the next five years is -2.64%, suggesting a further decrease of approximately 12.5% in demand by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Changes in domestic agricultural policies affecting sesame seed production and supply.
- Shifts in international trade dynamics and export opportunities.
- Adoption of sesame seeds in new markets and alternative uses that could influence demand.
- Climate change impacts on crop yields and availability.
