Forecast: Fixed Telephone Subscriptions in Nigeria

Fixed telephone subscriptions in Nigeria have seen a consistent decline from 2013 through 2023, with values falling from 0.21 in 2013 to 0.042 subscriptions per hundred persons in 2023. Year-on-year variations highlight a trend of decreasing relevance, with significant drops noted, particularly in 2014 and 2019, registering year-on-year changes of -50.48% and -25.57% respectively. Over the last two years, the decline rates have averaged around -4.82%. Looking at the long-term, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past five years is around -9.82%, signaling a persistent downward trajectory.

Future forecasts suggest that this downward trend will continue, albeit at a slower pace, with a projected CAGR of -2.69% from 2024 to 2028. The telecom industry in Nigeria seems to be nearing a point where fixed telephony becomes increasingly obsolete.

Future trends to watch for include the potential impacts of increased mobile penetration, advancements in internet-based communication technologies, and shifts towards more cost-effective and flexible telecommunications solutions, further sidelining fixed telephone subscriptions.