Analyzing the natural honey producing population in Kenya from 2013 to 2023 reveals a declining trend. Starting from 1.7963 million beehives in 2013, the population experienced periodic fluctuations, reaching 0.96631 million in 2023. Notable decreases occurred in 2014, 2019, 2022, and 2023, with year-on-year reductions of 20.53%, 25.79%, 6.14%, and 6.41% respectively.
Examining the past two years, the negative variations continued prominently in 2022 and 2023, with consistent declines each year. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years shows an average yearly reduction of approximately 8.82%, indicating a sustained downward trend.
Forecast data for 2024 and beyond predicts a continued decrease, with a five-year CAGR of -6.19% and an estimated 27.36% drop in total over the next five years. By 2028, the honey producing population is expected to shrink further to 0.65484 million beehives.
Future trends to watch for include environmental changes impacting bee habitats, market conditions influencing the beekeeping industry, and potential government interventions to support and stabilize honey production in Kenya.
