Forecast: Railway Passenger Traffic in the UK

UK railway passenger traffic experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade. From 2013 to 2019, there was a steady increase with slight year-on-year variations, highlighting overall growth in railway usage. However, 2020 saw a drastic 43.61% decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the most significant drop in the series. Recovery began in 2021 with a 70.8% increase, leading to stable growth thereafter. By 2023, the passenger traffic stood at 1.8351 billion units, almost returning to pre-pandemic levels. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years shows a modest increase, reflecting recovery and stability.

Future trends to watch for include:

  • Continued growth driven by post-pandemic recovery.
  • Impact of infrastructure investments and technological advancements.
  • Shift in passenger preferences towards sustainable transportation.
  • Potential economic fluctuations influencing travel demand.