Forecast: Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses in Nigeria

Between 2013 and 2023, Nigeria saw a notable decrease in electric power transmission and distribution losses, dropping from 15.12 to 10.1 units of electricity production. Year-on-year variations show an improving trend, with the most recent years (2021, 2022) experiencing declines of around 4.35% and 4.46%, respectively. In 2023, the decrease was 4.57%, indicating sustained improvement. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last five years stands at -4.36%, demonstrating consistent reduction in losses over this period.

Future trends suggest this decline will continue, with forecasted reductions leading to a 20.86% decrease from 2024 to 2028 and a forecast CAGR of -4.57%. This indicates ongoing enhancements in transmission and distribution efficiency.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Technological advancements in grid management and infrastructure improvements.
• Increased investments in renewable energy sources and their integration into the grid.
• Policy initiatives aimed at reducing technical and non-technical energy losses.
• Private sector involvement in electricity distribution to improve efficiency.