Based on historical data, the total number of scientific publications in music in Turkey was highly volatile from 2013 to 2023. The numbers fluctuated significantly: it dropped drastically in 2013 but saw a notable surge in 2014. The overall trend, however, shows significant growth, particularly noticeable from 2018 onwards. In 2023, the number of publications stood at 41.43 units, showcasing a strong upward trend.
- 2013-2014: Extreme increase of 352.22% (year-on-year change).
- 2014-2015: Decline of 14% (year-on-year change).
- 2015-2016: Sharp drop of 52.5% (year-on-year change).
- 2016-2017: Modest rise of 5.71% (year-on-year change).
- 2017-2018: Significant increase of 76.39% (year-on-year change).
- 2018-2019: Huge decrease of 53.01% (year-on-year change).
- 2019-2020: Dramatic surge of 432.04% (year-on-year change).
- 2020-2021: Increase of 79.82% (year-on-year change).
- 2021-2022: Increase of 36.04% (year-on-year change).
- 2022-2023: Significant growth of 31.12% (year-on-year change).
From 2018 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 51.64%, underscoring a substantial rise. Looking forward from 2024, a more stable growth trend is expected, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 11.9%, scaling from 51.21 units in 2024 to 89.86 units by 2028, reflecting a forecasted 5-year growth rate of 75.46%.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of increased funding and institutional support on publication volumes, evolution of collaborative research between Turkish and international scholars, and the role of digital technology in music research dissemination.
