The healthcare expenditure on long-term care in Germany has shown varied annual growth over the past years. Starting from 16.08% of the total current health expenditure in 2013, it rose to 19.45% by 2023. From 2013 to 2016, the increase was gradual with stable year-on-year growth rates averaging around 1.35%. A significant jump occurred in 2017 with a 10.62% increase, followed by moderate increases through 2020. The years 2021 and 2022 saw stagnations and slight fluctuations, with the expenditure peaking again at 19.71% in 2020 before slightly adjusting to 19.21% in 2021.
From 2018 to 2023, the 5-year CAGR averaged 0.58%, reflecting a decelerating growth trend. Moving forward, forecast data suggests a continued but slower rate of increase, expecting the expenditure to incrementally reach 19.82% by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR from 2024 shows a lower average annual growth rate of 0.28%, indicating a stabilization in expenditure growth.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of demographics, particularly the aging population, which can exert upward pressure on long-term care costs. Additionally, policy changes, innovations in healthcare technology, and economic conditions will play critical roles in shaping future expenditure patterns.
