Forecast: Out-of-pocket Health Expenditure in China

The analysis of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure in China indicates a projected upward trend from 24.84 trillion yuan in 2024 to 29.45 trillion yuan in 2028. Comparing it to the actual expenditure of 23.67 trillion yuan in 2023, there is a noticeable year-on-year increase of approximately 4.95% from 2023 to 2024.

Over the forecasted period, the year-on-year variations are as follows:

  • From 2024 to 2025: 4.75%
  • From 2025 to 2026: 4.45%
  • From 2026 to 2027: 4.20%
  • From 2027 to 2028: 4.00%
This results in a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.32% over the five-year forecast period.

Future trends to watch for include demographic shifts, such as an aging population, which could drive further increases in healthcare spending. Additionally, advancements in medical technology and changes in healthcare policies are likely to influence out-of-pocket expenditures significantly.

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