Forecast: Number of Commercial Bank Branches in Kenya

From 2013 to 2023, the number of commercial bank branches per hundred thousand adults in Kenya has seen a consistent decline after peaking in 2015. Starting at 5.28 units in 2013, this figure rose slightly to 5.59 units by 2015 before experiencing a downward trend, reaching 3.99 units in 2023. This decline is highlighted by year-on-year decreases, especially noticeable from 2016, and a compounding annual growth rate (CAGR) that turned negative from 2017 onwards.

Year-on-year variations have largely been negative since 2016, with the value decreasing annually. The most recent data shows a year-on-year decline of 4.32% in 2023. The last five years have a CAGR of -4.41%. Looking towards the future, forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 predicts a continued decline at a CAGR of -1.84%, with projections for 2028 indicating the number of branches will further fall to 3.5 units per hundred thousand adults.

Future trends to watch for include the potential impact of digital banking and fintech solutions reducing the necessity for brick-and-mortar branches, as well as economic factors influencing the banking sector's expansion or contraction in physical infrastructure.