In 2023, the volume of substances liable to spontaneous combustion transported by rail in Italy stood at approximately 3.5 million tonne kilometers. Recent forecasts indicate a decline to 3.0 million tonne kilometers in 2024, followed by a consistent level of 2.0 million tonne kilometers from 2025 through 2028. This signifies a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% from 2023 to 2024 and a further 33.3% decline from 2024 to 2025. From 2024 to 2028, the annual compound average growth rate (CAGR) suggests no growth as volumes stabilize.
Future trends to watch for include technological advancements in rail safety and alternative transport options. Regulatory changes targeting environmental impact and safety measures may further influence rail transport dynamics for hazardous materials.
