In Indonesia, the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis immunisation rates have shown significant fluctuation over the past decade. The highest rate observed was in 2013 with 99%, followed by a general decline. Despite a minor rebound in 2019 to 96.5%, the rates drastically dropped to 87% by 2020, potentially due to disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequent years saw further declines, reaching 80.1% in 2021, and then stabilizing slightly with minor increases to 80.4% in 2023.
The year-on-year variation over the past two years (2022-2023) shows very minimal growth—0.25%—indicating a period of stabilization from the steep declines in previous years. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years has been negative at -2.79%, reflecting the considerable decline in immunisation rates.
Future trends to watch for:
• A very modest forecasted improvement with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 0.07%, and a forecasted 5-year growth rate of 0.37% from 2024 to 2028.
• The importance of addressing potential causes behind the declining rates, such as healthcare disruptions, vaccine misinformation, and accessibility issues, to ensure a reversal and sustained growth in immunisation coverage.
