Forecast: Number of Payments by Cards with a Debit Function in Indonesia

The number of payments by cards with a debit function in Indonesia has shown notable growth from 2013 to 2023, starting from 242.85 million units to 696.96 million units. Significant year-on-year growth was observed particularly between 2013-2016 and in 2021. However, the trend saw a decline during 2020 due to economic disruptions, which rebounded strongly in 2021. The market showed modest growth in 2022 and 2023 with 4.09% year-on-year increase in 2023.

Key trends and insights:

• 2013-2016: Strong growth with annual increases ranging from 19.41% to 31.44%.
• 2017-2019: Growth stabilizing with increases between 1.18% and 18.13%.
• 2020: Market disruption with a 12.87% decline, likely due to the global pandemic.
• 2021: Rapid recovery with a 32.38% increase.
• 2022-2023: Moderate growth, signaling market stabilization.
• Forecast (2024-2028): The market is expected to grow at a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 2.91%, reaching 841.78 million units in 2028, indicating a 15.43% overall growth from 2023.

Future trends to watch for:

• Technological advancements in payment methods may drive further adoption of debit cards.
• Economic stability and consumer confidence will be crucial for sustaining growth.
• Regulatory changes and innovations in the fintech sector could influence market dynamics.
• Increased competition from alternative payment solutions such as mobile wallets and peer-to-peer payment apps could impact debit card usage.