The UK's oil refinery capacities have shown a consistent declining trend from 2013 to 2023, decreasing from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.16 million barrels per day in 2023. The year-on-year variation illustrates a reduction, especially notable with a -10.72% drop in 2014 and a steady decrease of around -1.6% annually in recent years. The five-year CAGR reflects this trend, dropping from earlier higher declines of -5.31% to a more moderate -1.07% by 2023.
Forecasts from 2024 demonstrate a continued decrease, with the capacity expected to fall to 1.07 million barrels per day by 2028, which translates to a forecast five-year CAGR of -1.33% and a cumulative decrease of 6.49% over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for include potential policy changes regarding renewable energy, technological improvements in refining processes, and global market dynamics that could impact the demand and supply balance for the UK's oil refining capacity.
