The gross value added (GVA) from crude petroleum and natural gas extraction in Canada has shown significant fluctuations over the past decade. In 2013, the value was $89.21 billion, peaking at $109.66 billion in 2014, before a sharp decline to $49.48 billion in 2015 due to falling oil prices. The trend continued with a further dip in 2016, reaching $41.61 billion. A recovery phase followed, with values improving to $62.71 billion in 2017 and stabilizing around $77.19 billion in 2019. However, 2020 saw another steep decline to $40.82 billion, likely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Modest growth ensued, with the value at $44.36 billion in 2023.
Year-on-year trends illustrate extreme volatility, such as the -54.88% drop in 2015 and +50.69% rise in 2017. The CAGR from 2013 to 2023 registered a general decline of -5.54%. Forecasts from 2024 onwards indicate a consistent decrease, with an expected value of $28.17 billion by 2028, representing a forecasted CAGR of -7.26% over five years.
Future trends to watch for include geopolitical influences on oil prices, the global shift towards renewable energy, regulatory changes, and technological advancements in extraction techniques. These factors will play crucial roles in shaping the crude petroleum and natural gas extraction landscape in Canada.
