In 2023, Japan recorded 8.3 thousand new bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 indicate a gradual decline, with a 3.35% year-on-year decrease from 2024 to 2025. The subsequent years project a continuous decrease, with rates of approximately 3.33% from 2025 to 2026, 3.31% from 2026 to 2027, and 3.43% from 2027 to 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this period is approximately -3.36%, indicating a steady reduction in TB cases due to potential enhanced medical interventions and public health strategies.

Future trends to watch for include:

Advancements in diagnostic and treatment procedures.
Public health campaigns aimed at TB prevention and awareness.
Government and non-government initiatives boosting healthcare access and resources.
Changes in social determinants influencing TB incidence, such as economic and housing conditions.