Forecast: Mental and Behavioural Disorders Mortality in South Africa

The mortality rate for mental and behavioral disorders in South Africa has shown a gradual increase over the years, standing at 20.8 deaths per 100,000 persons in 2023. From 2022 to 2023, the year-on-year variation was at 1.46%, reflecting a consistent upward trend, although at a decreasing rate. Over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was approximately 1.93%, indicating a steady rise in mortality rates due to these disorders.

Monitoring future trends reveals a forecasted CAGR of 1.2% over the next five years, with a five-year growth rate of 6.13%. This suggests that while the mortality rate will continue to increase, the pace of growth is expected to decelerate slightly.

Future trends to watch for:

• The impact of improved mental health awareness and interventions on reducing mortality rates.
• The influence of socio-economic factors and healthcare policies on the prevalence of mental and behavioral disorders.
• Advancements in medical treatments and their accessibility to the general population.