Forecast: Share of Scientific Publications Among the World's 10% Top-Cited Publications in Agronomy and Crop Science in Japan

The share of Japanese agronomy and crop science publications among the world's top 10% cited was 3.35% in 2023. Forecasts indicate a consistent decline from 2.98% in 2024 to 1.51% in 2028, reflecting a concerning downward trend in citation impact. Year-on-year, Japan is expected to experience a -12.42%, -14.18%, -16.52%, -19.25% decline respectively, highlighting diminishing competitive influence in the field. The CAGR over five years shows an annual average drop of 13.87%.

Future trends to watch include research funding shifts, innovations in crop science technologies, and collaborations impacting publication visibility. Monitoring international benchmarks and academic best practices can provide insights for reversing these downward trends.