The analysis of energy consumption in the transport sector in Kenya indicates a fluctuating trend over the years. Actual data from 2013 to 2023 shows an overall increase, with notable declines in 2017 and 2020. Significant year-on-year variations include a peak increase of 15.18% in 2015 and a drop of -3.9% in 2020. As of 2023, the total energy consumption stood at 21.27 units. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2023 is 2.79%, reflecting moderate growth.

Looking ahead, the forecast from 2024 to 2028 indicates a steadier growth rate, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 1.24% and an overall growth rate of 6.36%.

Future trends to watch for include:

The impact of technological advancements and increased adoption of electric vehicles on energy consumption.
Government policies promoting renewable energy sources and their effect on traditional energy consumption in transport.
Potential economic fluctuations that could influence fuel prices and consumption patterns.