Over the past decade, coffee production in Africa has demonstrated a general upward trend, increasing from 1.08 million metric tons in 2014 to 1.22 million metric tons in 2023. This represents a modest but steady growth. Specifically, the year-on-year variation for 2023 was 0.66%, while the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years stood at 0.52%.
During the earlier years, production faced fluctuations with significant growth in 2015 (4.27%) and 2016 (4.36%), followed by a decline in 2017 (-2.39%). Stability was reached in 2018 with a growth rate of 3.93%, but 2019 saw stagnation. Further, the impact of adverse conditions was evident in 2020 with a -4.28% decline, followed by a rebound in 2021 with a 5.97% increase. From 2022 to 2023, production growth steadied at 0.66% each year.
Looking ahead to the forecasts, coffee production in Africa is expected to continue its gradual rise, reaching 1.26 million metric tons by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR is 0.52%, and the overall growth rate for this period will be approximately 2.63%, depicting a scenario of consistent, if modest, expansion.
Future trends to watch for include the effects of climate change on coffee yields, technological advancements in farming practices, shifts in global coffee demand, and local government policies aimed at boosting production. These factors will play crucial roles in shaping the trajectory of coffee production in Africa.
