In 2023, the number of passenger cars aged over 20 years in Germany stood below 4 million. From 2024 onward, a steady increase is forecasted, reaching approximately 4.88 million by 2028. The year-on-year growth is consistent, indicating a stable upward trend with a compound annual growth rate. Over the period from 2024 to 2028, the growth rate suggests a continual increase in the aging fleet of passenger cars.

Future trends to watch for include:

Potential governmental incentives or regulations targeting older vehicles, which could impact these forecasts significantly.
Shifts towards electric vehicles or other alternative fuel technologies, potentially influencing the aging vehicle dynamics as newer models enter the market.
Economic factors such as inflation, which could affect vehicle renewal rates and maintenance costs, thereby influencing the number of older cars on the road.