From 2013 to 2023, UK general government procurement on defence witnessed a consistent decline from 11.03 to 9.76 units. After peaking in 2019 at 10.26 units, spending generally continued to decrease. The year-on-year variations reveal a mix of minor fluctuations, with the most significant increases and decreases occurring between 2018 and 2020. Over recent years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has slightly improved to positive territory, reflecting a slowing rate of decline. Currently, in 2023, spending stands at 9.76 units.
Future trends to watch for:
- Persistent downward trend: Forecasts up to 2028 suggest a continued decrease, albeit at a slower pace, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.61%.
- Macro-economic conditions: Global economic and geopolitical factors could impact defence budgets beyond the forecast period.
- Technological advancements: Investments in cutting-edge defence technologies may reshape procurement patterns.
