The number of fourth-grade repeaters in secondary education in Germany is forecasted to decrease steadily, from 13.94 thousand in 2024 to 10.32 thousand in 2028. This downward trend highlights a significant reduction each year, with a notable year-on-year decrease of 6.68% between 2024 and 2025, followed by similar declines in subsequent years. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the five-year period indicates a consistent average annual decrease in repeaters.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Educational policy changes that may influence repetition rates.
- Interventions aimed at improving student performance to decrease repetition further.
- The impact of socioeconomic factors on educational attainment and repetition rates.
