Forecast: Tuberculosis Prevalence in India

The tuberculosis prevalence in India has shown a significant decline over the past decade. The value stood at 211 cases per hundred thousand persons in 2013 and decreased steadily to 86 cases in 2023. Year-on-year reductions fluctuated, with the highest decline of 11.34% observed between 2022 and 2023. Over the last two years, the decline averaged around 11.18%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the five years leading to 2023 was -9.92%, indicating a consistent annual decrease in TB prevalence. Looking forward to the 2024-2028 period, the forecasted CAGR is -18.04%, suggesting a steep decline, with prevalence estimated to drop to 27 cases per hundred thousand persons by 2028, equivalent to a 63.01% reduction.

Future trends to watch for:

• Continued advancements in early detection and intervention.
• Increase in public health campaigns and improved access to healthcare facilities.
• Impact of new vaccines and treatment protocols.