The new business lending for SMEs in Brazil witnessed a significant decline from 2013 to 2017, with values dropping from 555.67 billion to 367.38 billion Brazilian Reals. This represents a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of -6.22% during this period. However, from 2018 onwards, the lending values showed a recovery trend, growing from 414.9 billion to 611.84 billion Reals in 2023, marking a CAGR of 8.08% over the last five years.
The year-on-year analysis highlights a progressive upward trend in recent years, with a 19.51% increase in 2020, 2.35% in 2021, 1.83% in 2022, and 1.44% in 2023. Despite the slowed rate of increase, this indicates a more stable growth trajectory.
The forecasted data suggests that the lending values will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, reaching 635.21 billion Reals by 2028. The projected CAGR for the next five years is expected to be 0.53%, with an overall growth rate of 2.65% by 2028.
Future trends to watch include the impact of economic policies, access to digital financial services for SMEs, and potential shifts in interest rates. Monitoring these factors will be crucial to understanding the lending landscape's evolution in Brazil.
