Forecast: Government Expenditure on Military Defence by Government Level in Italy

Between 2013 and 2023, Italy's government expenditure on military defense experienced significant fluctuations. The lowest value was recorded in 2014, with a downward trend observable until 2015. A notable increase occurred in 2016, continuing almost consistently with slight variations until 2023, where expenditure stood at 24.18 billion euros, marking a steady rise.

Year-on-year variations showed high volatility, including notable increases in 2016 (12.39%) and 2021 (10.52%). Recent years leading up to 2023 displayed smaller yet consistent annual increases, averaging 2.38% in 2022 and 2.43% in 2023. The last 5-year CAGR (2023) stood at 3.24%, reflecting moderate and stable growth.

For future trends, the forecast from 2024 to 2028 indicates a continued upward trajectory in defense spending, with an expected average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7%, reaching approximately 26.91 billion euros by 2028. Key areas to watch include changes in geopolitical landscape, technological advancements, and shifts in governmental defense policy impacting budget allocations.