Between 2013 and 2018, Italy experienced fluctuations in the risk of catastrophic health expenditure due to surgical care, with values ranging from 1.1 to 1.5. The year-on-year variations highlighted several significant changes, notably a peak increase of 27.27% in 2015 and a drop of 20% in 2018. From 2019 to 2023, the data showed a more consistent growth pattern, stabilizing around 1.5 units with a notable increase in 2023 to 1.6 units, indicating a 6.67% growth that year.
Looking forward, the risk is forecasted to rise gradually from 1.6 in 2024 to 1.7 by 2028, suggesting a modest but continuous increase. The forecasted 5-year CAGR is 1.22%, with a 5-year growth rate of 6.25%.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of healthcare policy reforms, technological advances in surgical procedures, and potential economic shifts affecting healthcare funding and expenditure. Monitoring these factors will be essential for predicting and managing catastrophic health expenditure risks in Italy.
