The forecast for the UK fossil energy refinery output indicates a consistent decline from 2024 to 2028. Starting at 2.2499 million terajoules in 2024, it is expected to decrease steadily to 2.0463 million terajoules by 2028. This represents an average annual reduction in output, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of negative values over the forecast period. As of 2023, the actual refinery output stood similar to the 2024 projections, highlighting the oncoming downward trend.

Future trends to watch include:

The impact of the UK's energy transition on fossil fuel demand.
Potential market shifts due to policy changes favoring renewable energy sources.
Evolving technology reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuel refineries.