The number of notified tuberculosis cases in Italy is on a predicted downward trend from 2024 to 2028, decreasing from 2.07 thousand cases in 2024 to 1.69 thousand in 2028. Comparing to 2023, with available data indicating slightly above 2.07 thousand cases, there's a noticeable reduction. Year-on-year projected percentage decrease includes approximately 4.8% in 2025, followed by consecutive decreases of about 5.1% in 2026, 4.8% in 2027, and 5.1% in 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 is expected to average at -5% per annum.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of public health initiatives and global health policies aiming at TB control, potential changes in healthcare access, and emerging drug-resistant TB strains which could alter forecasts. Regular monitoring of these factors is crucial for adapting strategies to sustain the declining trend.
