Forecast: Crude Mortality Rate of Mental Disorders in Rural Areas in China

The crude mortality rate of mental disorders in rural areas in China was recorded at 4.10 per hundred thousand in 2023. Based on forecasts from 2024 to 2028, the crude mortality rate is expected to increase incrementally each year. The rate is anticipated to rise from 4.15 in 2024 to 4.52 per hundred thousand in 2028, exhibiting a trend of consistent growth.

The year-on-year percentage variations reflect a slight but continuous increase in mortality rates, with projected annual changes of:

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2025: 2.89%

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2026: 2.57%

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2027: 1.83%

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2028: 1.35%

Over the last two years leading up to 2024, the average year-on-year growth was approximately 2.36%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the crude mortality rate from 2023 to 2028 stands at around 1.77%.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of healthcare interventions, mental health awareness programs, and socioeconomic factors in rural China. Monitoring these areas could provide insights into potential shifts in the mortality rate trajectory and help guide policy efforts to mitigate further increases.