Forecast: Coal Consumption in China

China's coal consumption has seen fluctuations over the years, with notable declines between 2013 and 2016, followed by gradual increases starting in 2017. In 2023, the consumption stood at 413.66 million metric tons. The year-on-year variation has been relatively stable, showing minor increases each year since 2017. Notably, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) shifted from negative to positive around 2019 and has remained modest but consistent since, averaging 0.8% over the last five years.

Looking forward, the forecast for 2028 suggests a mild growth with a five-year CAGR of 0.53% and an overall growth rate of 2.69%. This indicates steady yet slow increases in coal consumption.

Future trends to watch for:

• Shifts in energy policy and regulation that might reduce reliance on coal.
• Advancements in renewable energy technologies and adoption rates.
• China's economic growth and its energy demand implications.
• Global coal market dynamics and their influence on domestic supply and prices.