Forecast: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases Mortality in South Africa

The mortality rate due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases (COPD) among females in South Africa has shown a rising trend from 2013 to 2023. In 2013, the value was 2.9 thousand deaths, increasing to 3.77 thousand by 2023. This period experienced varying year-on-year growth rates, peaking in 2015 with an 8.73% increase. The recent years highlight a more stable growth around 1.29%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years, leading up to 2023, was 1.21%.

Forecast data from 2024 to 2028 suggest a continued increase, though at a slightly decelerated pace with a forecasted five-year CAGR of 0.91%, culminating in a 4.64% growth rate by 2028. Monitoring future trends is crucial to understanding the health infrastructure's effectiveness in managing COPD and the impact of new interventions or public health policies.

Future trends to watch for:

• Innovations in medical treatments for COPD.
• Implementation and effectiveness of public health policies targeting smoking cessation and pollution control.
• Potential changes in the healthcare access and quality in South Africa.