Forecast: Number of Payment Transactions by Non-banks in Brazil

The number of payment transactions by non-banks in Brazil has shown significant fluctuations over the past decade. From 2013 to 2019, there was a steady increase with a peak in year-on-year growth in 2014. However, 2020 saw a notable decline of 14.48%, likely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A strong recovery followed in 2021 with a 30.17% increase. 2022 experienced a slight decrease of 2.14%, but as of 2023, transactions stood at 36.14 billion units, marking a 2.63% year-on-year growth. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years highlights a moderate 2.9% increase. Projection data from 2024 to 2028 suggests a steady growth trend with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 1.96%, resulting in approximately 41.07 billion units by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include:

• The extent to which digital payment platforms continue to evolve and integrate with non-bank financial institutions.
• The potential impact of regulatory changes on non-bank payment sectors.
• Technological advancements in payment systems, including blockchain and fintech innovations, could substantially influence the volume of transactions.
• Shifts in consumer behavior towards digital and contactless payments driven by convenience and security.