The total number of scientific publications in drug discovery in the US has shown a downward trend since 2013, with some fluctuations. In 2023, the volume stood at approximately 0.765 thousand publications. Over the years, there have been significant year-on-year variations: a steady decline from 2013 to 2019 followed by a brief increase in 2020. However, the recent years from 2021 to 2023 resumed the decrement. Analyzing the CAGR over the last five years, the average annual decrease is around 1.83%. Forecasting into the future, the trend suggests a continued decline with an estimated 5-year CAGR of -3.23%, reaching around 0.625 thousand publications by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of emerging technologies such as AI and machine learning in drug discovery, which might reverse the declining trend by enhancing research productivity. Additionally, the availability of new funding sources and collaborations across academia and industry could play a pivotal role in driving future publication volumes.
