Forecast: Energy Consumption in Transport in South Africa

Energy consumption in transport in South Africa displayed varied fluctuations over the past decade. Starting from a modest increase in 2013 (4.67%) to minor declines in 2014 (-3.84%) and 2016 (-3.73%), the trend shifted upwards in subsequent years. Notably, in 2020, the sector witnessed a significant drop (-10.41%) due to the global pandemic. However, a recovery followed with a gradual rise in consumption, showing growth in 2021 (5.51%) and 2022 (4.14%). In 2023, energy consumption stood at 28.73 units, reflecting a 2.97% year-on-year increase. The average annual growth (CAGR) from 2019 to 2023 was approximately 0.79%.

Looking forward, energy consumption in transport is forecasted to grow steadily, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 0.64%, reaching 29.91 units by 2028. Future trends to watch for include advancements in electric vehicle adoption, improvements in fuel efficiency, and regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions. These factors may significantly alter consumption patterns and drive further fluctuations in this sector.