Forecast: Road Passenger Transport Movements in the UK

From 2013 to 2019, the UK road passenger transport sector showed a consistent annual growth, with a year-on-year increase ranging from 0.72% to 2.39% and a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) hovering around 1%. However, the year 2020 marked a significant drop of 32.62% due to the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting overall movements to 518.98 billion passenger kilometers. Recovery commenced in 2021 with a 12.54% increase and continued robustly into 2022 with a 24.83% rise. By 2023, road passenger transport reached 789.53 billion passenger kilometers, a growth of 8.3%, reflecting a return to pre-pandemic levels with a CAGR of 0.85% for the latest five years.

Looking ahead, forecast data from 2024 to 2028 suggest a steady recovery and growth in road passenger transport movements with an anticipated five-year CAGR of 0.91%. Expected future trends include:

  • The continuous adaptation to hybrid and electric vehicles, influenced by environmental policies.
  • Increasing urbanization and potential changes in commuting patterns due to flexible working arrangements.
  • Investment in infrastructure improvements to support more efficient and sustainable transport solutions.

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