The national railway passenger traffic in Poland has seen various fluctuations between 2013 and 2023. In 2023, the volume stood at 323.48 million units. From 2013 to 2015, there was a modest but steady increase in passenger numbers, with notable growth beginning in 2016 and peaking in 2019. However, 2020 saw a significant drop by 16.03% due to the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting the long-term compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The subsequent years saw a recovery with a strong rebound in 2021 and steady growth leading up to 2023.
In recent years, from 2021 to 2023, we observe a positive year-on-year variation of 6.41% in 2022 and 1.06% in 2023, reflecting a more stabilized recovery pattern. Over the past five years, the average annual growth rate (CAGR) stood at 0.99%. Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 suggest a continued growth trend, with a projected CAGR of 0.85% and an overall growth rate of 4.34% by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Potential impact of economic fluctuations on passenger numbers.
- Improvements and investments in railway infrastructure and technology.
- Shifts in travel behavior post-pandemic.
- Environmental policies influencing public transport usage.
- Competition from other modes of transport such as electric vehicles and intercity buses.