General government expenditures on defense in Finland have generally declined from 2013 to 2023, moving from 1.46% to 1.13% of GDP. The past trends indicated multiple phases of year-on-year reductions, with a notable exception in 2016 experiencing a modest rise. Recent years (2022-2023) continued to show decline, though at a slower pace. The CAGR over the last five years up to 2023 was -1.03%, reflecting a steady downward trend.
Looking ahead, forecasts project a continued decrease in defense spending, from 1.11% of GDP in 2024 to 1.05% by 2028. The forecast five-year CAGR is -1.11%, indicating a gradual but persistent decrease in expenditures.
Trends to watch for include:
- Geopolitical developments, which could influence defense priorities.
- Economic conditions that may impact government budget allocations.
- Potential shifts in NATO and EU defense policies affecting Finland's strategy.
