From 2013 to 2023, fossil fuel production support in Canada has experienced significant fluctuations. Starting at a relatively high level in 2013, support peaked in 2014 before seeing a substantial drop in 2015. Support rebounded somewhat in 2016 and 2017, followed by a decline until 2020, which marked the lowest value likely due to external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Support then saw a considerable recovery in 2021, growing moderately through 2023 where it stood at 49.73 units.
The year-on-year variations demonstrate pronounced volatility, with significant drops in support in 2015, 2018, 2019, and notably in 2020, juxtaposed by sharp recoveries in 2016, 2017, and 2021. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis over the last five years till 2023 indicates a slight average annual decline of -0.024%. The forecast for the next five years suggests a relatively stable but marginally declining trend, with an expected annual average decrease of -0.11% and a cumulative decline of -0.52% by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include potential regulatory changes, market dynamics impacted by global energy transitions, and technological advancements in renewable energy that could affect the level of support for fossil fuel production. Monitoring these factors will be crucial in understanding the evolving landscape of fossil fuel support in Canada.
