The forecast for climate change-related energy tax revenue in Kenya shows a declining trend from 2024 to 2028. Starting at 32.84 in 2024, the expected revenue is projected to decrease year-on-year by 4.3% in 2025, 4.5% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027, and 4.9% in 2028. Across the five-year period, this results in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately -4.6%.
Several future trends to watch for include policies and technological advancements promoting renewable energy that may further impact tax revenues, shifts in global energy markets, and potential economic factors within Kenya that could either mitigate or exacerbate the decline in energy tax revenue.
