Forecast: Possession of Heavy Trucks in China

The possession of heavy trucks in China reached 10.2 million units in 2023. Over the past decade, an upward trend has been observed, with notable yearly growth fluctuations. The year-on-year growth rate has generally been positive, peaking in 2017 and 2018 beyond 11%, while 2023 experienced a more modest increase of 5.57%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the years leading up to 2023 stood at 7.54%, indicating a steady expansion.

Projections for the upcoming years suggest a continued rise, forecasting a reach of 12.2 million units by 2028, accompanied by a more moderate forecasted 5-year CAGR of 2.67% and a total growth rate of 14.1% over the next five years.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Advancements in heavy truck technology, including electrification and automation.
• Changes in regulatory policies impacting vehicle emissions and safety standards.
• Shifts in economic activities that influence logistics and transportation demand.
• Potential impacts of infrastructure developments on the transportation and logistics sectors.