The yield of oranges in Kenya has seen a considerable decline over the years from 2013 to 2023. In 2023, the yield stood at 70.96 thousand hectograms per hectare, highlighting a cumulative downward trend. A significant peak was observed in 2015, but subsequent years experienced a sharp fall, with the most notable dips occurring post-2016. This trend of decline continued, as evidenced by a 3.92% year-on-year decrease from 2022 to 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years was -6.56%, indicating a persistent reduction in yield.
Forecasts from 2024 onwards suggest a continued decline in orange yields, with an anticipated CAGR of -3.36% over the next five years, which translates to an overall decrease of 15.69% by 2028. Factors such as climatic changes, pest infestations, and possible reduced investments in agricultural technologies may contribute to this trend.
Future trends to watch for:
- Innovations in agricultural practices and technology adoption
- Impact of climate change and mitigation strategies
- Government and private sector investments in the agri-business sector
- Global market demand and price fluctuations of oranges
