Forecast: Gross Value Added of Retail Trade in Malaysia

Between 2013 and 2019, Malaysia's Gross Value Added (GVA) of retail trade exhibited a positive growth trajectory, with an annual increase ranging between 8.39% and 15%. By 2019, it reached 111.12 billion Malaysian Ringgits. However, from 2020 onwards, the sector faced a decline, influenced by economic and perhaps other external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2023, the GVA stood at 91.5 billion Ringgits, signaling a 5% year-on-year decline. Forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 shows a continuing downward trend, with the average annual decrease (CAGR) estimated at -4.71%.

Key trends to watch include:

  • The ongoing impact of structural shifts in consumer behavior post-pandemic.
  • Potential recovery signs in digital and e-commerce sectors within retail trade.
  • Economic policies or stimulus measures by the Malaysian government aiming to revitalise the retail sector.

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