Forecast: Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans in Brazil

In 2023, the ratio of nonperforming loans (NPL) to total gross loans in Brazil was recorded as 2.23%. Based on the forecasted data from 2024 to 2028, there is a decreasing trend in the NPL ratio, dropping from 2.15% in 2024 to 1.85% by 2028. Year-on-year percentage variations show a declining trend, with the NPL ratio expected to decrease by approximately 3.72% from 2024 to 2025, around 3.38% from 2025 to 2026, about 3.5% from 2026 to 2027, and approximately 4.15% from 2027 to 2028. Over the five-year period, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) indicates an average yearly reduction of approximately 3.64%.

Future trends to watch for include the potential impact of economic policies on loan performance, shifts in consumer and corporate borrowing behavior, as well as external economic factors such as global market conditions and commodity prices, which can affect Brazil's economy and consequently, the NPL ratio. Close monitoring of regulatory changes and their effects on banking practices will also be crucial in assessing future trends in nonperforming loans.