As of 2023, the number of civil aero transport aircraft in China stood at 4.35 thousand units. Historical data indicates a rapid growth trend, with the year-on-year growth rates peaking during 2015-2017 at over 11%. However, over the last few years, the growth has decelerated, with a year-on-year variation of 3.5% in 2023, and a 5-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.63%.
Looking ahead, the forecast data from 2024 onwards shows a modest increase, with the number of aircraft expected to reach 5.06 thousand by 2028. The projected 5-year CAGR from 2024 to 2028 is 2.41%, considerably lower than the double-digit growth observed in the past decade.
Future trends to watch for:
- Potential impacts of technological advancements, such as new fuel-efficient and greener aircraft models.
- Government policies and regulations affecting the aviation industry.
- Economic conditions that could influence travel demand and airline expansions.
- Developments in international travel markets and bilateral agreements.
