The historical data on coal rents in Indonesia, expressed as a unit of GDP, shows significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. There was a notable decline during 2013-2015, followed by a gradual increase until 2018. The decline reoccurred in 2019 and 2020, but a significant rebound was observed in 2021. Recently, 2022 saw a sharp decline, followed by a slight recovery in 2023, standing at 0.92.
Considering year-on-year variations, fluctuations are evident with dramatic shifts such as -42.34% in 2015 and +81.98% in 2021. The CAGR over the last 5 years shows an average annual decrease of -3.08%. However, forecasts from 2024 to 2028 predict moderate growth, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 1.25%, resulting in a 6.41% growth over the period.
Future trends to watch for include the global shift towards renewable energy sources impacting coal demand, potential governmental regulations on coal mining, and the market's response to geopolitical factors affecting coal production and exportation in Indonesia. The balance between environmental policies and economic reliance on coal rents will be a critical area to observe.
